A  NEW  PARADIGM:
SPEIGEL'S  LAWS
OF  MANAGEMENT
 
INTRODUCTION:  Where We Are Now

Over the past years, various compilations of Murphy's and other laws have been gathered and published.  Each collection reinforces the impression that the best we humans can ever hope for is a sort of Murphic break-even: sometimes things go right because Murphy's Law will, inevitably, eventually interfere with itself, viz., if Murphy' Law can go wrong, it will.   The assumption that we all have gradually come to accept is that Murphy's and associated laws are universal constants much like the speed of light in a vacuum, or the boiling point of water at sea level.  However, we must be aware that such constants are not really constant at all.  They only appear to be unchanging because we humans keep measuring them under certain fixed conditions that we can either readily create with out technology (like vacuums), or under conditions which the human organism finds comfortable (like atmospheric pressure).   If we measure the spped of light in a black hole (which we cannot create with our technology), or the boiling point of water in deep space (where humans would die unprotected because there is no atmosperic pressure), then we would find that those familiar constants are no longer constant.  They take on new and different values that we are not used to seeing since we are never around under those unhealthy experimental conditions.  However, the new values are as real and valid as the conventional, familiar ones.  In fact our familiar physical "constants" can take on a wide range of values depending upon the conditions under which we choose to measure them.   In the same vein, Murphy's Laws exist and appear depressingly constant and universal, because we keep observing human affairs under the same constant set of human operating rules.  If we change those rules, and Murphy's Laws must correspondingly change to something new and different.   Take, for example, Dingle's Law1: "When somebody drops something, everybody will kick it around instead of picking it up."  A classic Murphologic law indeed, except we never see it operating during a football game, where instead, if somebody does drop something, everyone else tries to grab it and run like hell for the end zone.  Dingle's Law has changed to a new, different law (as yet unnamed) on the football field because the operating rules in that situation provide for immediate and clear consequences for dropping something and kicking it around.  More importantly, they also stipulate immediate and clear rewards for picking it up and running like hell!   Murphy's Laws are observations describing how the universe works now.  Be aware that in each observation is an implicit, hidden, self-destructive operating rule, eg., Dingle's Law restated as its hidden rule is teaching us: "If someone drops something, always kick it around instead of picking it up."   And that is what this article is all about: a new set of explicit, out-in-the-open, positive and healthy operating rules which, when supported by appropriate rewards, will teach us gratifying, rewarding, non-Murphic behavior.   When we are freed from the constraining expectation that Murphy's Laws are universal and constant, then we become aware that we can travel at will to any other point on the continuum of human behavior:

 

SELF-IMAGE AND STYLE:
Who You Are And What You Do

	The Napoleonic Maxim
	You can't lead a cavalry charge if you think you look funny on a horse.  If you do think you look funny on a horse, then postpone the charge and talk to a psychologist, a guru, or God.
	The Generalist/Specialist Rule
	The manager-generalist trades depth of kmowledge for breadth.  A specialist trades breadth of knowledge for depth.  They can work comfortably and effectively together only when they know this, and respect themselves and each other for their choices.
	The Rule Of Procrusteus
	The specialist automatically and unconsciously redefines any problem given him to fit the Procrustean bed of his specialized techniques.  Thus his results may not be the answer to your problem because it is the answer to his, redefined problem instead.
	The First "It's Their Fault" Fallacy
	If the Rule Of Procrusteus is allowed to operate during the solution of an assigned problem, then the fault lies with the generalist/manager alone.  He did not characterize2 the problem well, nor apportion it wisely among his specialists.
	The Second "It's Their Fault" Fallacy
	The Rule Of Procrusteus and The First "It's Their Fault" Fallacy applies to consultants as well as to specialists.
	The Hear No Evil Rule
	Power exiles reality.  Keep direct and reciprocal lines of communication open down to the level of the janitor.
	Grandma's Rule
	You can get more with a kind word and a revolver than you can with a kind word alone.  Or with a revolver alone.
	Fox's Fix3
	For results, use people's strengths.  To help people get ahead, work on their weaknesses.
	Harry Truman's Maxim
	Some questions cannot be answered, but they can be decided.
	Fox's Rule4
	Decisiveness practiced for its own sake is a runaway bulldozer.
	The Sobering Thought Rule5
	What you will be, you are in the process of becoming today.

 
ORGANIZATIONS AND SYSTEMS:
How The Plumbing Works

	Millard's Conclusion6
	The universe is simple; it's the explanations that are complex.
	Katz's Maxim7
	Organizations are inherently self-justifying: if you ask for rationale you will be overwhelmed with facts, figures, and fancy.  If you need to find out what is really going on, figure out what will happen if the organization is stopped from doing what it is doing.  This will give a faster and more accurate answer.
	Oopsie-Daisy Law
	Never test for a failure condition in a system without knowing in advance what you will do if you find it.
	No Exit Maxim I
	One can procrastinate about deciding what to do when a failure condition is found in a system; then, by invoking the Oopsie-Daisy Law, one can indefinitely delay any program that will test for that condition.  This is called negligence.
	No Exit Maxim II  (The Pinto Rule)
	If the procrastination involves a critical failure condition8, then it's called criminal negligence.
	The House Of Cards Rule
	Systems should be as simple a possible, but no simpler.
	The Leave It Alone Rule
	Some systems can't be improved; some systems shouldn't be saved.
	The Law Of Entropic Decay
	Resources tend to get pissed away.
	Transactional Truism
	Murphy's Laws are gallows humor9.
	The Murphy's Law Law
	An organization is in trouble when photocopies of Murphy's Laws begin to appear on office bulletin boards and in project status reports.

 
PROBLEM SOLVING AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT:
Thinking And Scheming

	Speigel's Permutation Of Wolf's Law10
	Never end a meeting without an agreement about next steps.
	Launegayer's Observation11
	Asking dumb questions is easier than correcting dumb mistakes.
	The First Law Of Differentiation
	Differentiate between conflicting ideas and complementary ideas.
	Rumsfeld's Rumination12
	In analysis, be aware that there are known knowns.  There are things we know we know.  We also know that there are known unknowns  That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.  But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.
	Speigel's Observation on Rumsfeld's Rumination
	Unknown unknowns are also known as "land mines".
	The 80/20 Guide
	The first 80% of the facts can be obtainbed with 80% of the effort; the last 20% takes another eighty.
	The Enough Is Enough Rule
	You don't need the last 20% to make an intelligent decision.
	The Thumb-Patton Postulate
	It's better to have an answer ± 20% in a reasonable amount of time than to wait forever for the perfect truth.
	The Dudley DoRight Postulates
	If it's worth doing, it's worth doing right.     If it's not worth doing right, it's not worth doing at all.     If it can't be done right, do something else you can do right instead.
	The Law Of Dimishing Effort
	The amount of time spent in solving a problem is inversely proportional to the amount of time spent in characterizing the problem.
	The Law Of Misplaced Priorities
	As the amount of time spent in characterizing the problem approaches zero, the amount of time spent in solving the problem approaches infinity.
	Speigel's Paradox
	The converse of The Law Of Misplaced Priorities is not true.
	Speigel's Surprise
	If The Law Of Misplaced Priorities is allowed to operate when a problem is characterized, then the solution to that problem:     a)  will always be found too late to be included in the final project report;     b)  will later be found not to be the correct answer after all. The appearance of Speigel's Surprise at the conclusion of a project indicates The Law Of Entropic Decay was allowed to operate for that project.
	The Red Herring Rule
	In characterizing a problem, differentiate the problem from its symptoms.
	The Input-Output Law
	The solution depends upon the way the problem is characterized.
	The First Disintegrating Barrier Maxim
	If you can't find a solution, then change the way the problem is characterized.   Example: The president of a small zoo, while attending a conference in India, was offered an adult elephant for his zoo completely free if his zoo would arrange for the shipping to his facility.  The president returned home, put the proposal to his Board, who accepted it enthusiastically.  The zoo board kicked off a campaign to raise the money for air-shipping, and publicized it throughout the town.  Unfortunately, the town's response was not enthusiastic, and after six months, only about a quarter of the necessary money had been raised.  The project just didn't seem to catch fire in the community.  The board was actually voting to abandon the project when a junior member observed that the board had characterized the probem as raising enough money to ship the elephant.  But the real problem, the new board member said, was, "How do we get an elephant from India to our town?"   The president got the point.  He contacted the major airlines and pitched his proposal: If the airline would transport the elephant, the zoo would sponsor a huge publicity campaign about the elephant, providing a reporter and photographer to cover each step of the trip, and to file colorful print and video reports with major newspapers and TV broadcasters as the trip progressed.  When the elephant reached its destination, the city agreed to sponsor a parade (featuring the new elephant, of course) and a big party for the townspeople at the zoo.  Of course, the airline providing the transport would be featured prominently in the reporting about the trip, and in the reporting of the parade and party.   It didn't take long for one of the major airlines to realize the tremendous free publicity and the enhancement of its good-will and "customer-friendly" image in transporting the elephant and participating in the party at the zoo.  Publicity clips would be on TV for multiple days as the elephant wended its way to America.  The cost to the airline would be negligible because the cargo routes had to be flown anyway regardless of how full the plane was.  They would ship the elephant on a flight that was deadheading, or was carrying minimum cargo.  The airline could work in promotions for vacations in India and other exotic Asian destinations.  The airline accepted the zoo's proposal in just a matter of days.    The project was a huge success for everyone.  The zoo had already collected money; it wasn't enough for air-shipping a live animal that large, but it was more than enough to pay for the reporter, photographer, and the zoo party.  After the publicity died down, polls showed the airline had increased its name-recognition among the general public, and found it even increased its market share of Indian and Far East destinations.    The problem was insoluble when it was characterized as a "how to pay" problem.  The same problem was easily solvable when it was characterized as a "how to transport" problem.  The little zoo got its elephant when it changed the way it characterized its problem.
	The Second Disintegrating Barrier Maxim
	Never solve an unnecessary problem.
	The Priciple Of Premature Effort
	Immediately after characterizing a problem, and immediately before initiating any action, find out who might already know the answer.  Start by asking the librarian.
	Greenberg's Rule
	It is fruitless to ask only the butcher whether the meat is fresh.  The developers and promoters of a given technology will always tell you that it does what it is purported to do.  Confirm their claims elsewhere.
	The Chain Reaction Rule
	Make sure your solution doesn't generate another problem.
	The Hearsay Hypothesis
	Information is always contaminated with noise at each point of transfer.  Thus, always confirm received information independently with the original source.
	The Circle Rule
	Before initiating any project, enter the following loop: Who requested the project report? Why does he want it? How will he use it? What are his task priorities? What are his success criteria/ What are his deadlines? How will you both know when to stop? Who else gets the final report? How will they use it? Did they want it in the first place? Return to Step 1 and recycle the loop until each step has a simple, clear, and objective answer. The effect of the Hearsay Hypothesis should be suppressed on each step of the loop.
	The Rule Of Three
	Ignoring The Circle Rule, The Hearsay Hypothesis, and The Principle Of Premature Effort virtually insures that The Law Of Entropic Decay will operate for that project.
	The "Don't Bother" Rule
	Before initiating a project, consider all possible expected results.  If the responses to each possible result are identical, then there is no need to initiate the project.  You may instead proceed directly to the response.
	The First Law Of Conservation Of Effort
	In solving a problem, do the simplest thing first.
	The Second Law Of Conservation Of Effort
	Do it the simplest way possible.
	The Taxi Rule13
	Find out the cost before you get in.
	Th Hindsight Hypothesis14
	The problem, after having been solved, is usually simple.

 
MEASUREMENTS AND CONCLUSIONS:
Getting The Right Stuff

	Utvich's Observation15
	One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions.
	The Law Of Recency
	There is a tendency to impose the most recently-observed patterns on all subsequently-observed data.
	The Janus Principle
	If observing a given experimental result makes it necessary to carry out further experimentation, then the observer will tend to see the result, or not see the result, depending upon the personl consequences of the extra experimentation upon him.  Eg., if the observer is the Project Director who can use the extra work to justify a larger budget and a salary bonus for himself, then he will tend to see the result.  If the observer is the technician who must work overtime to complete the extra work with no extra pay, he will tend to not see the result.
	The Land Of The Blind Rule
	Always use appropriate blind experimental design in observing test results in order to block the tendencies of the Janus Principle and The Law Of Recency.
	The Cuisinart Corollary
	Never state assumption as fact.  You must learn to scrupulously separate the two inside your own head first.
	Wethern's Law16
	Assumption is the mother of all screw-ups.
	Fireston's Formula
	Cost-risk considerations should always be included in cost-benefit analysis; Chicken Little only has to be right once.
	The "Are We There Yet, Mommy?" Syndrome
	Don't let your final conclusions be the place where you simply got tired of thinking.  Allow a comfortable margin for reviewing important decisions and re-examining doubts and alternate options  The practice of the ancient Persians might be used.  It was their custom, upon reaching a decision made after sober deliberations, to re-evaluate the entire matter again under the influence of wine.17
	NBS18 Maxim
	Always end a report with unambiguous conclusions and recommendations.  Never draw a conclusion without stating the boundary conditions19 that underlie it.
	Katz's Observation20
	Brevity and superficiality are often concomitants.
	The Believability Axiom I
	Always communicate in the language and concepts of the listener, never in your own specialized vocabulary.21  If the listener is intimidated by your vocabulary, he will not deny your conclusions at the risk of appearing stupid.  But, in his heart, he will remain uncertain of the conclusions, and he will become wary of you.  This is not a good situation if the listener is your boss.22, 23
	The Believability Axiom II
	There is a significant difference between legitimate specialized vocabulary and obfuscatory jargon.  You may judiciously and gradually introduce your listeners to some of the specialized vocabulary of your field; after all, you are trying to enlighten them.  But never use jargon; it is both pretentious and dishonest.  And thus, your listeners will eventually conclude that you also are pretentious and dishonest.
	The First Substitution Axiom
	Statistical analysis is not a substitute for good sampling.
	The Second Substitution Axiom
	Statistical analysis is not a substitute for critical thinking.
	The Third Substitution Axiom
	Speigel's Laws Of Management are not a substitute for critical thinking.

      ¹  Arthur Bloch, Murphy's Law Book Two: More Reasons Why Things Go Wrong (New York): Price/Stern/Sloan Publishers, Inc., 1980), p. 31.
 
      ²  To identify and describe each component part in clear, simple, and objective terms.
 
      ³  J. Fox, Trapped In The Organization (Los Angeles: Price/Stern/Sloan, 1980), p. 67.
 
      ⁴  Fox, p. 36.
 
      ⁵  Fox, p. 60.
 
      ⁶  G. Bennett, ed., 1001 Logical Laws (New York: Fawcett Columbine, 1979), p. 108.
 
      ⁷  P. Dickson, The Official Rules (New York: Dell Publishing Co., 1978), p. 96.
 
      ⁸  A critical failure is a failure that will cause death or serious injury.  Critical failure conditions discovered in a system are required to be addressed and ameliorated immeditely.
 
      ⁹  In psychology (Transactional Analysis), a type of deprecating humor which encourages approval for destructive behavior in oneself or others, eg., Tom, who is trying to stay on the wagon (with a self-demeaning laugh, inviting others to join in, signifying approval), "What an impossible boss!  I got so smashed Friday after work, I couldn't find my car for two hours!  Heh-heh-heh."
 
    ¹⁰  Dickson, p. 188.
 
    ¹¹  Bennett, p. 91.
 
    ¹²  Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, February 12, 2002 news briefing.
 
    ¹³  Dickson, p. 174.
 
    ¹⁴  Also known as Millard's First Corollary (see Millard's Conclusion).
 
    ¹⁵  Bennett, p. 41.
 
    ¹⁶  Bloch, p. 34.
 
    ¹⁷  Irving L. Janis, Groupthink (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1972), p. 219.
 
    ¹⁸  No Bull Shit
 
    ¹⁹  The set of conditions under which the conclusions are valid, and the sets under which they are not valid.
 
    ²⁰  Dickson, p. 97.
 
    ²¹  The First Canon Of The Society Of Charasmatic Engineers:  Statistics is a specialized vocabulary.
 
    ²²  If the listener doesn't understand statistics, construct graphs.  If the listener doesn't know thw x-axis from the y-axis, draw stick figures.  If the listener doesn't comprehend stick figures, then you shouldn't be reporting to him.
 
    ²³  If the listener say he understands statistics, don't believe him.

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    Copyright 1982, 2005   Alan Speigel